18 August 2016



Fuss political map in Jakarta becoming increasingly day by day course, is due Jakarta regarded as a barometer of local government closest to the axis of the central government. Hence there is a presumption political analysts who called, what happens in the political map of Jakarta will have an effect on the political map in the area. Now, a political opponent who will face the incumbent political party is full Basuki Tjahaya Purnama where no taboo has elektabilitas so high.

Calculated to carry out a number of powerful figures who are considered to have a reputation that is equivalent to the full
Basuki Tjahaya Purnama or Ahok many fondly called by political parties. Mechanism crawl the Jakarta governor candidate was held, the result is not shifted from an initial estimate that the public already crowded discussed first. Haji Lulung Lunggana, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Yusuf Mansur, Djarot Saiful Hidayat, Uno Uno, Tri Rismaharini is a list of names that rose in some political parties are trying to be appointed to the surface to compete with incumbent Basuki Tjahaya Purnama. 

The simulation results 

But the question is, how strong the figure will be able to withstand the onslaught of famous basuki Tjahaya purnama  increasingly full day of soaring? So, will they have a level of election promises and no doubt at all. For pursing this question we will see in the simulation results based on the results of a survey conducted by the Research and Consulting Mujani (SMRC) in the period 24-29 June 2016
  1. Basuki Tjahaya purnama versus Haji Lulung Lunggana, the result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya chosen by 63.4 percent while the Hajj Lulung only got 13.3 percent. The remaining 23.3 per cent chose not to answer or did not know
  2. Basuki Tjahaya purnama versusYusril Ihza Mahendra, a result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya chosen by 59.4 percent of respondents, while bung Yusril quota of 26.3 per cent. The remaining 14.3 per cent chose not to answer.
  3. Basuki Tjahaya purnama   versus Yusuf Mansur, the result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya preferably 59.6 percent of respondents, while 22.3 percent favored Yusuf Mansur respondents. The remaining 18.1 percent answered do not know or chose not to answer.
  4. Basuki Tjahaya purnama versus Djarot Saiful Hidayat. The result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya been as much as 63.0 percent, while 15.5 percent Djarot, remaining 21.5 percent chose the answer does not know or does not answer.
  5. Basuki Tjahaya purnama versus Uno Uno. The result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya been as much as 61.0 percent of respondents, while 19.2 percent of respondents Uno Uno. The remaining 19.8 percent said they did not know or did not answer
  6. Basuki Tjahaya purnama   versus Tri Risma Harini, the result Basuki Purnama Tjahaya been 58.4 percent, while Risma by 26.6 percent. The remaining 15.0 percent said they did not know or did not answer
When you see the simulation results those, was an opportunity to tackle the incumbent  Basuki Tjahaya purnama will run aground. In theory, it is increasingly incumbent competitors will tend to erode elektabilitas incumbent. Will the strategy chosen, considering the results that have been disclosed previously elektabilitas less happy? Or as an alternative paranormal world to subvert the power of incumbent in the election later.

It is undeniable work Jakarta Governor  Basuki Tjahaya Purnama so real and powerful embedded in public memory DKI. Though rain should reap criticism and condemnation of a number of words and evictions are considered inhumane but the fact DKI still many people liked the way like that. This means that the public judge figure Basuki Tjahaya Purnama has worked very hard and is a leader they need to address the issue in Jakarta, including to address the practices of government naughty  in Jakarta. 

Matter of habit speech Basuki Tjahaya Purnama who likes to get angry and considered rude in my opinion will not affect much lowered elektabilitas incumbent. The track record and the work that has been proved during a public key words DKI impose his choice to Basuki Tjahaya Purnama . Is not it also a few other local leaders such as Tri Risma Harini and Ganjar Pranowo have a habit tantrums like Basuki Tjahaya Purnama . 

Difficulties Political Parties 

What is the source of the problem so that the competition is so hard tackle Basuki Tjahaya Purnama sitting chair DKI first podium for the second time? Undeniably it stems from their track record torehkan own, minimal action shock power, ramps and mediocre. Could it be staged charisma, walking to the market, present at the eviction site will be able to catch up and to boost the popularity? I said it was impossible.

Most probably that little can rival
Basuki Tjahaya Purnama is a figure that has also has a track record and the choice is Surabaya Mayor Tri Risma Harini. Just at this point still needs to be supported by the hard work of the party machine poles media center helped support an all-out. Continue to candidates other governors how? I think the chances of winning are very slim and almost none at all, unless they are aided by the services of psychics, and even then the speculative and the results are not guaranteed to be 100 percent. 

Prof.Dr. Syamsuddin Haris, M.Si, Head of the Political Research Center LIPI said "during these same political party failed to understand the community,". Political parties have a lot to boost his popularity during the passing lane sensation blindly, consequently did not leave a mark anything in the public memory. Problem proof of employment, wait, that's another matter. 

Party Solutions

Recent news joining some political parties against Basuki Tjahaya Purnama familial stamped with the coalition seems to be a breath of fresh air to change the political map of Jakarta. But unfortunately, it is still determined by the decision of whether to support PDIP Basuki Tjahaya Purnama or not in the General Election of DKI later. With the strength of 28 seats in parliament, PDIP is very horror giants  monster figure and be cautions in the event DKI democratic party.

Aware of the danger, it may also be the reason
Basuki Tjahaya Purnama to continue to seduce the chairman PDIP to be joining the ranks of his supporters. It began to appear and the signal is so strong through the intimacy between the president Jokowi, chairman of the PDIP and Basuki Tjahaya Purnama in the vehicle when the arena toward convening Rapimnas Golkar party. Will the package Basuki Tjahaya Purnama -Djarot Saiful Hidayat vol 2 will happen again? In my opinion, yes, like that. 

For the benefit of the PDI-P's 2019 later, it will be impossible PDIP cadres carrying the mayor of Surabaya advanced in Jakarta Election. It is like the proverb says hope the birds fly high, hands pigeon is released, meaning that it is clear PDIP already control the city of Surabaya time anyway to be released. Would not it be nice if these two areas controlled by the best cadres PDIP. 

So the best solution for the party that intends to overthrow Basuki Tjahaya Purnama is kept together and build political communication with the PDIP. Launches seduction seduction-malignant and do not forget spiked with tempting offer to make a mother Megawati falldown. Without PDIP coalition of family, then his fate will not be different from the fate of the red and white coalition in name

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